Suominen: Soft Q4 owing to slight volume decline - Nordea

Suominen Q4 comparable EBITDA of EUR 4.2m fell 40% short of Vara Research consensus expectation of EUR 7m owing to slight volume decline y/y. The company expects its target market to remain solid in 2025 in the short term although some uncertainties related to global economic sentiment remain. Sales prices and mix improved y/y in Q4, while FX had a slight negative impact. Americas sales were weaker than we had anticipated while EMEA came above our expectations. The company has resolved the operational issues seen in Q3 while competition from low-cost countries increased, mainly in Europe. Board of directors propose no dividend for 2024 while consensus had expected EUR 0.02 per share. The company guides for increasing comparable EBITDA in 2025, while consensus has modelled EUR 30.7m in 2025E after EUR 17.0m in 2024. We note operational issues in Q3 while we do not know if the company has been able to resolve these during the quarter. Initially, we anticipate consensus to take down 2025 estimates more than 10%.

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