Stendörren: High net leasing and IFPM 5% above our est - ABG

Net operating income -1% vs. ABGSCe Net leasing SEK 17m (-4m) and 62m TTM (18m) Now >20% below peers on P/IFPM
Income from property management +5% vs. ABGSCe Rental income came in at SEK 180m (165m), compared to our forecast of SEK 183m. Net operating income (NOI) was SEK 139m (124m), -1% compared to our estimate and the NOI margin (77.2%) 0.6pp better. Income from property management (IFPM) amounted to SEK 87m (70m), +5% vs. ABGSCe, as central admin and net financial costs were lower than our estimates. Q2 net leasing summed up to SEK 17m (-4m) in Q2 and SEK 62m (18m) TTM, and the occupancy rate changed by 1pp q-o-q (4pp y-o-y) to 91%. Although the NOI margin fell back sequentially by 1.3pp in the earnings capacity (to 75.4%), the net operating income came up by 2.8% following raised rental income (by 4.5%).

EPRA NRVPS 2.7% q-o-q to SEK 199 Property value changes amounted to SEK 79m (370m) or 0.7%, we expected +0.6%. The valuation yield was flat q-o-q (-30bps y-o-y) at 5.5%. EPRA NRV per share increased by 2.7% q-o-q and 25% y-o-y to SEK 199 vs. our forecast of SEK 198. Net LTV changed to 48.6% from 48.3% in Q1. The average interest rate was 3.0% (2.3% in Q1) and the interest maturity 2.9y (3.5y in Q1). The isolated Q2 numbers would imply estimate revisions of +5% on CEPS, while 0% on EPRA NRV.

Trades well below peers on cash earnings (IFPM) The share is trading at ~20x LTM IFPM and a 16% discount to reported NAV. This is -10% (P/IFPM) and -16% (P/EPRA NRV) vs. its 5-year averages. For the first time in a while now STEF is trading well below (>20%) the average of listed industrial and logistics peers CATE, NP3, SAGA & SLP on P/IFPM, following a stronger share run for particularly CATE (+18%) and SAGA (+19%) in the last month (STEF -8%).

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Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/stendorren/Equity-research/2022/7/stendorren---high-net-leasing-and-ifpm-5-above-our-est/