Skolon: Tough comps, but solid volume-driven growth - ABG

Q3'24e organic sales growth of 24% y-o-y
Minor positive estimate revisions
FVR of SEK 25-40 reiterated


What to expect in Q3'24e

We expect Q3 to deliver solid volume-driven sales, as the quarter is seasonally strengthened by the start of the school year. However, we expect growth to come down somewhat, as Q3'23 was exceptionally strong and presents tough comps. We expect sales of SEK 50m for Q3'24 (24% y-o-y), along with EBITDA of SEK 0.6m. Furthermore, we expect a continued increase in the utilisation rate, meaning increased sales of partner tools. This is positive for sales, but tends to weigh on the gross margin. We expect growth in paying users of 23% y-o-y and consequently an ARPPU of SEK 158.

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