Skolon: Textbook volume growth - ABG

'24e-'26e sales up 2-1%
Volume growth to continue into the year
FVR of SEK 20-35 reiterated


Q1: Strong growth in sales and paying users

Q1 net sales and ARPPU came in 26% above and 1% below our estimates, respectively. The beat on sales was primarily driven by a 25% increase in paying users y-o-y (+7pp vs. ABGSCe 17%), which in turn led to the somewhat lower-than-expected ARPPU (SEK 141 vs. ABGSCe SEK 143). The volume growth is mainly attributable to the Swedish and Norwegian market, reflecting increased underlying demand. The revenue mix appears to be tilted more towards recurring licence revenues, as COGS decreased, leading to a slight GM improvement to 42% (avg. 37% FY'23). EBITDA was SEK -1.8m, somewhat lower than our SEK -1.2m estimate. EBITDA was negatively affected by further investments in the platform, as well as increased staff costs (up 35% y-o-y) following an expected increase in headcount in markets outside of Sweden.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2024/4/skolon---textbook-volume-growth/