Skolon: On track to achieve growth target - ABG
- Minor positive estimate revisions
- Expect primarily volume-driven growth
- FVR of SEK 20-35 reiterated
What to expect in Q2'24e
For Q2'24 we expect sales of SEK 36m, implying y-o-y organic growth of 53%, along with an EBITDA of SEK -1m. Q2 is seasonally stronger than Q1 in terms of partner-tool sales, as schools prepare for the start of a new school year. We expect this to support a gross margin of 32% (vs. 42% Q1'24), as upselling causes revenue share to partners to increase. We also estimate an increase in the number of paying users of 22% y-o-y, coupled with an ARPPU of SEK 144. This is supported by recent news of a new contract in Norway, which includes 15,000 new users, with an estimated sales contribution of NOK 10m p.a.. We make no significant changes to our estimates on the news, as international expansion is included in our previous estimates, but this is an encouraging development. In terms of comps, Q2 is the last quarter to be affected by the divestment of Svensk Talteknologi (STT), and we estimate a modest impact of SEK -1m (-3.9% M&A growth y-o-y).
Minor estimate changes
We leave our Q2 estimates largely unchanged, as we expect Q2 growth to slow down (52% y-o-y organic vs. 85% y-o-y in Q2'23) on tougher comps. The continued international expansion should support a healthy increase in paying users for the full year: however, as the utilisation rate for new users is lower than for recurring customers, we continue to expect modest growth in ARPPU for the year (+4%), later accelerating in '25e-'26e (14%). We tweak our '24-'26 estimates, raising sales by 0.9-0.5% and '25e-'26e EBITDA by 18-2%.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at a 4.1x-1.9x '24e-'26e EV/Sales multiple, whereas the median of the peer group is trading at 4.4x-3.6x. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 20-35.
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