Skolon: Engagement gearing up - ABG

'24e-'26e sales up 3-2%
Volume growth to pick up in H2
Revised FVR of SEK 25-40 (20-35)


Q2: Strong growth in sales and ARPPU

Q2 net sales and number of paying users came in 11% above and 5% below our estimates, respectively. The beat on sales was primarily driven by a 46% increase in ARPPU y-o-y (+15pp vs. ABGSCe 31%). The revenue mix appears to be tilted more towards an increase in sales of partner tools, as COGS increased, leading to a GM of 25% (31% in Q2'23, 38% in Q1'24). EBITDA was SEK -1.7m, somewhat lower than our SEK -0.8m estimate. EBITDA was negatively affected by the lower GM, as well as increased personnel costs. Furthermore, Skolon has now been ISO 27001-certified, meaning that the company lives up to strict requirements for data security. This is a prerequisite for Skolon to be able to access the Swedish National Agency's federation system (Fidus Federationsråd), which only two players have access to. We deem the access to the federation system a long-term competitive advantage because Skolon can now be utilised by schools to access digital national exams.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2024/8/skolon---engagement-gearing-up/