Skolon: Aced earnings - ABG

'24e-'26e sales up 3-2%
In line to reach annual growth target of ~50%
Revised FVR of SEK 30-45 (25-40)


Sales driven by evenly balanced ARPPU and volume growth

Q3 net sales and the number of paying users came in 7% above and 1% below our estimates, respectively. The beat on sales was primarily driven by a 20% increase in ARPPU y-o-y (+5pp vs. ABGSCe of 15%), and although the number of paying users came in slightly below our estimates (-1%), growth was at a solid 22% y-o-y. Furthermore, we believe that the revenue mix is reflective of the difference between more mature markets, such as the Nordics, and new markets such as the UK. We assess that the ARPPU growth is primarily driven by an increased utilisation rate in the Nordics, and the volume growth is more tilted towards new users in the UK. EBITDA was SEK 2.6m, which is significantly higher than our SEK 0.6m estimate and corresponds to an EBITDA margin of 5% (+4pp vs. ABGSCe of 1%). While profitability was negatively affected by the lower GM, both personnel costs and external costs decreased, which supported the 97% EBITDA growth y-o-y.

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