Seafire: Stable profits within its reach - ABG

Watch out for the SolidEngineer changes
Major estimate changes following recent events
10x '23e adj. EV/EBITA, new fair value range: SEK 20-35 (37-57)


Q4e: prepare for one-offs and segment changes

For Q4e we expect sales of SEK 231m: a 68% y-o-y increase (3% organic, 65% M&A). We estimate the SolidEngineer accounting change highlighted in the Q3 report to have affected sales negatively by SEK 20m; remember that these SEK 20m will instead be reported during '23-'24. As a result of this change, we also believe EBITA will be affected negatively by SEK 6m. Furthermore, an inventory revaluation in Kenpo Sandwhich will also contribute negatively with SEK 6m. Taking this into account we estimate EBITA of SEK 10m and net income of SEK -17m for margins of 4.4% and -7.4%, respectively. Management has also expressed its intent to move SolidEngineer from the Trade & Services segment to the Industry segment, which we account for in the segment estimates given in the tables below.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Seafire/Equity-research/2023/1/seafire---stable-profits-within-its-reach/