Seafire: 35% below peers despite better estimates - ABG

One-time refinancing and main market expenses to weigh on Q1
Net margin to improve from 0.7% in '22 to 5.0% in '24e
Trading at 11x '24e P/E vs. peers at 17x, fair value SEK 25-35


Q1e: beware the one-offs

In Q1, we estimate sales of SEK 257m, up 53% y-o-y, of which 4% organic. We expect SEK 99m from the Products segment and SEK 158m from the Industrial Components segment. For EBITA, we estimate SEK 19m, or a margin of 7.5% (5.5%). Our segment EBIT margin estimates are 4.5% for Products and 11.8% for Industrial Components. The quarter will include some extraordinary expenses connected to the refinancing and the main market listing process — we estimate SEK 17.5m (13.5m financial items, 4m EBIT items) — as well as higher interest payments than what we can expect going forward now that bank financing has replaced the bond (21.7m vs. 6.5m). This results in a net income estimate of SEK -22m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Seafire/Equity-research/2023/4/seafire---35-below-peers-despite-better-estimates/