Sdiptech: Q1 likely to mark the bottom for the growth rate - Nordea

Sdiptech's Q1 report is due on 29 April. We expect a solid quarter with 15% y/y sales growth and EBITA* up 25%, with a stronger y/y margin despite short-term headwinds from cost inflation. We note that M&A growth will ramp up again after Q1 (due to previous divestments) and forecast ~18%, on average, for Q2-Q4, vs 2% in Q1. Over the longer term, we think Sdiptech is in a good position to reach its organic growth ambitions, given tailwinds from exposure to green infrastructure, such as Rolec (24% of 2021 EBITA). We raise our 2022-24 estimates by 3% for sales and 0-2% for EBITA due to M&A and price hikes, and a lower margin. We lower our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 340-416 (SEK 367-442), representing 18-22x 2023E EV/EBITA, similar to key peers at 20x 2023E EV/EBITA and 19x currently. Marketing material commissioned by Sdiptech.

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