Scanfil: Ready to meet high demand - Evli Research

Profitability advanced in Q4 as plant productivity improved

Scanfil Q4 top line grew 16% y/y to EUR 222m vs the EUR 216m/218m Evli/cons. estimates. Without spot purchases growth was 17% y/y, compared with the long-term target of 5-7%. There have been price increases, but volumes have mainly driven revenue. Demand remained high especially within accounts belonging to Automation & Safety, Energy & Cleantech as well as Medtech & Life Science. Scanfil’s guidance suggested EBIT would improve over the year, yet the EUR 13.4m EBIT was well above the EUR 12.8m/12.5m Evli/cons. estimates. EBIT margin, excluding spot purchases, was 6.5% as better component availability helped productivity. The component situation continues to normalize and should no longer be such a major issue, while inflation is now seen mostly in the low single digits.

Scanfil has already added some capacity to meet demand

Scanfil has achieved double-digit growth two years in a row and has already added capacity. This year sees capex in new electronics manufacturing lines in Atlanta (also widens services in the US) and Sieradz (a new building would make the Polish plant the main electronics production site in Europe). We estimate the guidance suggests close to 10% growth for the year excluding spot purchases; growth should be mostly driven by volumes rather than prices. Advanced Consumer Applications’ top line may decline this year due to the headwind from fading component purchases, but other segments should be positioned to achieve either flat or some positive headline revenue development. We estimate Automation & Safety to grow 10% nominally this year (in the high teens excluding spot purchases).

We don’t find valuation yet too expensive

The 9.5x EV/EBIT multiple, on our FY ’23 estimates, isn’t low in Scanfil’s historical context but remains in line with peers’, while Scanfil’s is still likely to achieve somewhat better margins than a typical peer. For FY ’24 we estimate 5% growth and 6.2% EBIT margin, which we view conservative in the light of long-term targets; the corresponding 8.7x EV/EBIT multiple is in line with peers’. We update our TP to EUR 8.75 (7.0) and retain BUY rating.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://www.evli.com/hubfs/ERP/Raportit/Scanfil/Scanfil%20230222%20Company%20update.pdf