Rottneros: Weaker on pulp and maintenance - ABG

Q4e: clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m, Q1 should be better
Pulp prices down, but hikes announced
Fair value range: SEK 9-16/sh


This is our earnings bridge

We expect Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m, down from SEK 29m in Q3'24 (Q4'23 SEK -100m). The main effects q-o-q are likely: SEK -30m from lower pulp prices, SEK +11m from FX, SEK -10m from wood costs, and SEK -90m from the annual maintenance. We arrive at a Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m. Note that Rottneros will book SEK +65m-70m in one-off gains related to the sale of emission quotas, i.e. reported EBIT will likely be SEK -20m-25m. Q1 will likely be better than Q4, driven by a reversal of the annual maintenance stop and somewhat better volumes. We expect Q4 clean EBIT of SEK 5m-20m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/rottneros/Equity-research/2025/1/rottneros---weaker-on-pulp-and-maintenance/