Rottneros: Q4 below, Q1 likely better - ABG

EBIT SEK -28m vs. ABG SEK -25m — lower volumes
Q1 likely better — no maintenance
Conference call at 12 CET


EBIT SEK -28m vs. ABG SEK -25m

EBIT was SEK -28m, which compares to our estimate of SEK -25m. The small miss was mainly driven by lower sales volumes. Note that Rottneros sold emission rights totalling SEK 76m, i.e. clean EBIT was SEK -104m vs. our SEK -90m. The company had a production of 75kt and deliveries were -2.6% lower than production. EPS came in at SEK -0.18 vs. our estimate of SEK -0.09. Dividends have been removed for '24 given the weak financial performance (SEK 0.5/sh in '23).

We had the following EBIT bridge in our estimates: we expected Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m, down from SEK 29m in Q3'24 (Q4'23 SEK -100m). The main effects q-o-q were likely: SEK -30m from lower pulp prices, SEK +11m from FX, SEK -10m from wood costs, and SEK -90m from the annual maintenance. We arrived at a Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m. Note that Rottneros will book SEK +65m-70m in one-off gains related to the sale of emission quotas, i.e. reported EBIT will likely be SEK -20m-25m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/rottneros/Equity-research/2025/2/rottneros---q4-below-q1-likely-better/