Rottneros: Pulp is gaining momentum - ABG

Q1e: Clean EBIT of ~SEK 37m
Pulp prices move higher, demand stronger
Fair value range: SEK 9-16/sh


Our earnings bridge

We expect Q1 clean EBIT of ~SEK 37m, up from SEK -100m in Q4'23 but down from SEK 149m in Q1'23. The main effects q-o-q are likely: SEK +62m from higher pulp prices (NBSK +12% and BHKP +25%), SEK +20m from higher volumes, SEK -12m from FX, SEK -1m from pulp price hedges, SEK -1m from wood costs (prices relatively stable), SEK -1m from higher chemical and distribution costs (caustic soda price up ~10% q-o-q in Western Europe), and SEK +70m in maintenance reversals. We arrive at Q1 clean EBIT of ~SEK 37m. Q2 will likely be stronger than Q1, driven by higher pulp prices and better volumes. We expect Q2 clean EBIT of SEK 50-80m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/rottneros/Equity-research/2024/4/rottneros---pulp-is-gaining-momentum/