Relesys: A mixed bag, but with a few more negatives - ABG

DKK 51.8m ARR ~3% below ABGSCe, 17% adj. EBITDA beat
Limited ARR estimate revisions, '24e-'25e adj. EBITDA cut 1-6%
FVR of DKK 3.2-8.5


Limited '23e-'25e ARR revisions despite weaker Q2 DARR

We make minor revisions to '23e-'25e ARR (<1%) and continue to expect FY'23e ARR around the mid-point of the reiterated DKK 59m-64m guidance despite Q2 q-o-q DARR of DKK 2.4m being a tad to the weak side. Q2 ARR of DKK 51.8m (36% y-o-y growth) was ~3% below our estimate, with the miss driven by substantially lower y-o-y ARR uplift at 15% vs. ABGSCe at 20%; churn at ~3% was slightly better and new ARR of 24% was largely in line with our estimates. Management admits it has not landed enough deals in Q2 (which follows an impressive Q1 where it landed the large grocery wholesaler NorgesGruppen), but claims it sees no change in demand since Q1. H1 revenues of DKK 26.7m were directly in line with our estimate, but we lower '23e-'25e revenues by 1-2% on lower consultancy revenues.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/relesys/Equity-research/2023/8/relesys---a-mixed-bag-but-with-a-few-more-negatives/