Poolia: Solid demand picture in Q2 - ABG

Q2 sales growth of 18% y-o-y Divestment of German operations behind sales revisions Proposed name change to PION Group Q2: Sales 3% above ABGSCe but decline in EBIT margin

Poolia reported Q2 sales of SEK 540m (457m), adjusted for the divestment of the German operations. This marked a y-o-y increase of 18% and was 3% above ABGSCe as Uniflex Sweden, Poolia Sweden and Norway exceeded expectations. EBIT was SEK 17.7m (21.7m) adjusted for Germany, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 3.3% (4.7%). This was 23% below ABGSCe and the main deviation was lower profitability in Poolia Sweden, while Uniflex Sweden and QRIOS Sweden also saw lower-than-expected profitability. However, both Poolia and QRIOS saw higher EBIT margins y-o-y. Norway returned to positive EBIT after three consecutive loss-making quarters, which was sooner than we expected. Poolia also proposed a name change for the group to PION Group in order to differentiate from the operational brand Poolia and further emphasise its increased focus on consultancy, HR tech and being an active consolidator.

‘23e EBIT down 3% from lower profitability and Germany We lower our estimates following the report, with the sales revisions driven entirely by the divestment of the German operations. The EBIT revisions, meanwhile, are mainly driven by lower expected profitability in the remaining business. In total, our ‘23e sales and EBIT are down 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. Excluding the effect from Germany, sales and EBIT for ‘23e are up 1.7% and down 0.9%, with Poolia in particular continuing to grow sales y-o-y at a faster rate than we anticipated, albeit at a slightly lower profitability level.

EV/EBIT of 6.3x with expected dividend yield of 8.8% for ‘22e Despite the increasing macro uncertainties, Poolia seems to enjoy solid demand and is in a good position to continue to grow in H2 ‘22e. The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 8.8x, EV/EBIT of 6.3x and an expected dividend yield of 8.8% for ‘22e.

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