Physitrack: Q4 largely in line with our expectations - ABG

Q4 was in line versus our sales and adj. EBITDA estimates
Slight cons miss but reassuring '23 margin outlook
Share is -14% YTD, trading at 14x '23e EV/adj. EBITA


Q4 details

Physitrack delivered sales of EUR 3.52m which is 1% below ABGSCe 3.56m (-1% vs Factset cons EUR 3.55m), +5% q-o-q and +38% y-o-y driven by 20% proforma growth. On product mix, we note that both the Wellness segment and Subscription revenue came slightly short of our expectations, but the deviations are limited. Adj. EBITDA reached EUR 0.88m (1% vs. ABGSCe 0.87m and -4% vs cons 0.92m), for a margin of 24.9% (ABGSCe 24.4% and cons 25.9%), following that both sales and adj. opex (ex. D&A) were a tad lower than we had estimated. Below adj. EBITDA, the D&A came up steeply q-o-q, faster than we expected, which is resulting in a pressured adj. EBIT 65% below our estimate. However, one should consider the low base coupled with the strong scalability. The rolling average 12-month churn rate is now at 1.2% (monthly), i.e., flat versus Q3’22 which showed 1.2% as well. Finally, we note that Physitrack exited the quarter with an ARR of EUR 11.0m, up 5% from 10.5m in Q3’22.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/physitrack/Equity-research/2023/2/physitrack---q4-largely-in-line-with-our-expectations-/