Physitrack: Organic growth back >30%, but softer margin - ABG

Q1e 36% org. growth, but limited margin improvement q-o-q
We cut '23e-'24e adj. EBITA by 13-9% on higher opex
Cash flow uncertainty likely the reason for weak share YTD

Trends similar to last few quarters

We forecast Q1 sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 3.73m and EUR 0.96m, respectively, corresponding to sales growth of 45% (of which 36% organic) and an adj. EBITDA margin of 25.7%. We expect Wellness sales to come up 8% q-o-q, though a bit slower than in the last few quarters (+14% q-o-q in Q4'22) on slightly tougher comps.

For the remainder of '23, we estimate the sequential Wellness growth to pick up to around 10%. In Lifecare, we expect the sequential subscription growth to return after being flat between Q3'22 and Q4'22, growing almost as fast as Wellness in Q1e in q-o-q terms, but then coming down to the normal run-rate of ~4% in Q2e-Q4'23e. On margins, we note that while the top line has been largely in line with our expectations over the last few quarters, we keep raising our absolute adj. opex estimates, partly driven by the mix effect of rapid Wellness growth, but also as we have underestimated the continued growth investments.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/physitrack/Equity-research/2023/4/physitrack---organic-growth-back-30-but-softer-margin/