Physitrack: Cash flow turnaround in '23? - ABG

Share down 20% today despite limited changes to outlook
We expect positive FCF ex. earn-outs in '23e
Share is trading at 14-7x '23e-'24e EV/adj. EBITA


Q4 triggered limited EBITDA revisions, but '23e EBITA -14%

While the proforma growth came in slightly below the company's organic growth target of >30%, it was mainly dragged down by an underwhelming performance of Fysiotest, which we already knew was underperforming, and the PT courses subscription transition that naturally pushes back revenue. Opex ex. D&A continued up as a result of opportunistic investments, and weighed on the adj. EBITDA margin, which saw a second consecutive decline sequentially as expected. The D&A, however, took a significant step-up from Q3'22, resulting in a Q4 adj. EBIT well below our expectations. In total, despite limited '23e-'24e adj. EBITDA revisions, the new D&A run-rate makes us lower '23e-'24e adj. EBITA by 14-11%, and adj. EBIT by 22-15%.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/physitrack/Equity-research/2023/2/physitrack---cash-flow-turnaround-in-23/