Penneo: Stronger profitability guidance than expected - ABG

DKK 89.3m pre-announced, adj. EBITDA 8% above ABGSCe
Weak '24 ARR guidance, but very positive EBITDA guidance surprise
Cons to lower '24e-'25e ARR but raise profitability and FCF estimates


Q4 numbers vs. ABGSCe

Q4 ARR was pre-announced at DKK 89.3m, corresponding to 26% y-o-y growth. ARR churn remained low at ~4% y-o-y, in line with our estimate. ARR uplift of ~16% was slightly lower vs. our estimate of ~17%, while ARR new sales of ~14% came in higher than our estimate of ~13%. Q4 revenues of DKK 32.6m was 4% lower than our DKK 33.9m estimate. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was DKK 9.0m, 8% higher than our estimate of DKK 8.3m. As such, Penneo's adj. EBITDA for the FY'23 came in at DKK -8.7m, around the mid-point of its recently adjusted negative DKK 8m-10m guidance range. FCF excl. leases for the quarter was 5.4m, higher than our DKK 0m estimate, bringing the cash position at YE'23 to DKK 42.2m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2024/2/penneo---stronger-profitability-guidance-than-expected/