Penneo: Plenty of promising signs in Q2 - ABG

Limited estimate revisions after solid Q2 with several promising signs
Base machine is working, scale effects increasingly visible...
...and journey to positive FCF more de-risked: FVR of DKK 6-14


Limited estimate revisions after a solid Q2

Penneo grew ARR by 21% y-o-y in Q2 (in line with ABGSCe), with strong new sales of 16% compensating for softer uplift of ~10% (vs. ~17% avg. in '23) and a tad higher churn of 5% (vs. ~4% avg.). Adj. EBITDA of DKK 1.5m came in slightly above our DKK 1.1m estimate on lower costs. We make limited estimate revisions after Q2 ('24e-'26e adj. EBITDA raised by 5-2%, but on low numbers). This leaves us expecting 22.5% ARR growth in '24e (vs. the implied 18-25% guidance) alongside adj. EBITDA of DKK 8.8m (vs. DKK 5m-10m guidance).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2024/8/penneo---plenty-of-promising-signs-in-q2/