Penneo: ARR in line, revenues and adj. EBITDA below - ABG

ARR 0% vs. ABGSCe, revenue 17% below due to transaction-ARR
ARR guidance narrowed; sees no change to weak demand
Limited '23e cons estimate revisions, perhaps slightly positive beyond


Q3 numbers vs. ABGSC

Q3 ARR of DKK 82.5m was in line with our DKK 82.7m estimate, corresponding to ~27% y-o-y growth. The low churn of ~4% was also in line with our estimate. However, while uplift of ~18% was slightly higher than ABGSCe at 17%, new ARR of ~13% came in a tad below our 14% estimate. Q3 revenues came in significantly below (DKK 15.9m vs. ABGSCe at DKK 19.2m). However, the miss was primarily driven by transaction-based ARR being delayed into October (i.e. it will be recognised in Q4) rather than in September (i.e. Q3). The revenue miss also drove down adj. EBITDA to DKK -7.4m (vs. ABGSCe at DKK -4.9m), as costs were generally in line with our estimates.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2023/11/penneo---arr-in-line-revenues-and-adj.-ebitda-below/