Penneo: '24e likely to see breakeven or positive EBITDA - ABG

Q4e numbers to mark a strong end to '23 with no major surprises
'24e: We expect 26% ARR growth and breakeven EBITDA...
...but a cash burn of DKK 23m; FVR of DKK 6-13 (5-13)


Q4 numbers unlikely to bring major surprises

Penneo reports Q4 on 21 February (advanced two weeks due to the extraordinary general meeting on 29 February, where we potentially could see a change of BoD and in Penneo's growth strategy). The Q4 numbers are unlikely to bring major surprises, as ARR was pre-announced at DKK 89.3m (26% y-o-y growth), while the FY'23 adj. EBITDA guidance was recently upgraded to negative DKK 8m-10m (we estimate DKK -9.4m, implying a Q4e adj. EBITDA of DKK +8.3m). We forecast a negative FCF (incl. lease payments) of DKK -1m in Q4e (aggregating to a cash burn of DKK 24m in '23e) and a cash position of DKK 37m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2024/2/penneo---24e-likely-to-see-breakeven-or-positive-ebitda/