Oscar Properties: Q1 miss while EC remains intact - ABG

Rental income +5% vs ABGSCe
Some questions around higher costs
~50% below peers on ’22e P/EPRA NRV

Earnings capacity IFPM up 9% in absolute numbers
Rental income came in at SEK 114m, 5% above our forecast of SEK 108m, while net operating income was SEK 68m and the NOI margin 59%, compared to our estimate of SEK 75m and 70%. However, the NOI margin in the reported earnings capacity (EC) remains intact (77%) so we will need to dig a bit deeper to understand the lower figure in Q1. Central admin was higher (SEK 16m) than the ~SEK 10m implied quarterly by the earnings capacity; however, it includes SEK 4.6m in one-offs. Net financials (SEK 72m) was higher than the implied quarterly cost from the earnings capacity (~SEK 57m). Income from property management (IFPM) was negative in the quarter (SEK -21m). In the earnings capacity, IFPM increased by 9% in absolute numbers, while IFPM per share decreased by 16%, due a larger number of shares than in the previous quarter (Q4). Compared to Q4, the occupancy rate fell slightly to 88% vs 89% (economic) and 85% vs 86% (area). The average interest rate was 4.6% (4.4% in Q4) but is explained by the company to be solely due to changed reporting method.

EPRA NRVPS of SEK 17, -6% versus ABGSCe
Unrealised value changes amounted to SEK 37m (54m) or 0.5%, we expected 0.70%. SEK -11m of realised value changes (24m) related mainly to completion costs for old development projects. Acquisitions of SEK 376m was signed and closed in Q1 and Q2, of which primarily industrial properties. EPRA NRV per share fell 12% q-o-q to SEK 17.1. Net LTV increased to 70.8% from 70.1% in Q4’21.

‘22e P/EPRA NRV of 0.37x, ~50% below peers
Oscar Properties is valued at ~14x and 0.37x on ’22e P/IFPM and P/EPRA NRV. We note the shorter track record and a slower EPRA NRV growth than peers (Castellum, FastPartner and Wihlborgs), but we forecast larger cash earnings growth than cons. and ABGSC estimates for these peers. OP’s valuation on ’22 estimates is in line with peers ...
Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/oscar-properties/Equity-research/2022/4/oscar-properties---q1-miss-while-ec-remains-intact/