OrderYOYO: Q2 likely to stand in the shadow of Q1 - ABG

We forecast 21% y-o-y ARR growth and 15% adj. EBITDA margin...
...meaning growth will continue to contract but margins climb up
Minor estimate revisions: FVR unchanged at DKK 5-14


Q2e: 21% y-o-y ARR growth, 15% adj. EBITDA margin

OrderYOYO will report Q2/H1 on 18 July. Although we expect the strong momentum to continue (supported by unchanged market conditions during the quarter), we highlight that the Q2 figures may easily stand in the shadow of the impressive Q1. We forecast Q2e ARR of DKK 297.7m, for 21% y-o-y growth. This equates to a q-o-q DARR of DKK -2.3m (vs. DKK +20.0m between Q1 and Q2 last year), as we note that: 1) March '24 was a very strong month, helping to create tough q-o-q comps, and 2) ARR in Q2 last year was boosted by the consolidation of Kingfood (we estimate by DKK ~10m). On a half-year basis, our 21% ARR growth estimate can be broken down to 7% y-o-y ARR churn, 12% uplift, and 16% new sales. Based on our revenue estimate of DKK 74.2m, we model a Q2e adj. EBITDA of DKK 10.9m and a margin of 15% (i.e. flat vs. Q1), weighed down by our expectation of a slight q-o-q increase in costs (as we suspect OrderYOYO has continued ramping up on resources). We model Q2e cash EBITDA of DKK 3.3m, for a margin of 5%.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/orderyoyo/Equity-research/2024/6/orderyoyo---q2-likely-to-stand-in-the-shadow-of-q1/