NYAB: Good order activity supports high growth - ABG

Q3e: 13% sales growth, 15% EBITA growth
12-7x EBITA in M&A scenario; potential for >30% EBITA CAGR
We raise our fair value range to SEK 5.5-8.0 (5.5-7.5)


Strong order intake de-risks near-term estimates

We forecast sales of EUR 99m in what should be a seasonally strong Q3, which corresponds to 13% growth y-o-y (~30% of 2024e sales). The growth is underpinned by a strong order backlog (record order book in Q2'24 of EUR 343m, +36% y-o-y) and a continued strong order intake through Q3 that we think will result in a record order book >EUR 370m. The largest order in Q3 was the EUR 80m power line project commissioned by Vattenfall, which could have a positive impact on growth already in Q3, but more importantly help de-risk Q3 and H1'25 estimates and thus facilitate continued solid growth for the company. We also find it encouraging to see that the company's increased initiatives on power line work are paying off in several orders in the quarter. And with Svenska Kraftnät planning to 3x grid investments until 2027 (from SEK 5bn to SEK 19bn in annual investments), there should be plenty of more growth opportunities for NYAB.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2024/10/nyab---good-order-activity-supports-high-growth/