North Media: Q1 likely too early for paper price effect - ABG

Paper prices to decline further, but too late for some customers
'23e-'25e revenues down 1-2%, EBIT and adj. EPS down 1-3%
Unchanged DPS estimate of DKK 4.0/share; FVR of DKK 54-92


Q1 likely too early for an effect from paper price decline

North Media reports its Q1 results on 3 May. Our last data point shows that paper prices are down ~10% from the peak last year and are expected to decline further as producers' input costs have declined significantly. However, we do not expect to see a visible positive impact in Q1. Instead, we expect the financial performance in Q1 to be weighed down by leaflet volumes continuing to decline and cost inflation. We forecast Q1 revenues of DKK 236m, down 5% y-o-y. Our EBIT estimate of DKK 37m implies a y-o-y decline of 24%.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/north-media/Equity-research/2023/4/north-media---q1-likely-too-early-for-paper-price-effect/