North Media: Extracting the needed synergies proves costly - ABG

Q2 numbers overall better than expected...
Q2 numbers were better than we expected, with revenues of DKK 351m coming in 5% above ABGSCe, corresponding to +47% y-o-y growth (+3% adjusted for SDR). EBIT of DKK 41m came in above our estimate of DKK 30m, driven by stronger-than-expected performances in FK and SDR. Q2 also saw a DKK 141m gain on the securities portfolio (vs. our DKK 135m estimate), once again thanks to Novo Nordisk and NVIDIA.

...but "intentional" downgrade leads us to cut estimates
We cut '24e-'26e EBITDA by 9-3% and EBIT by 17-4%, primarily as a consequence of North Media's decision to accelerate growth investments into scaling minetilbud.dk internationally and to extract synergies in SDR. Q2 saw North Media starting automated packing for Swedish households - a process we expect to accelerate in the next 9-12 months, thereby bringing additional costs to the table in '24e-'25e. The synergies should first be clearly visible in numbers from '26e. Turning to North Media's four other segments, we are encouraged by seeing FK enjoying better-than-expected demand from more price-conscious consumers, while BoligPortal continues to deliver in line with our expectations. However, the process of transforming Ofir into a less cyclical and focused business appears more costly than initially anticipated. Moreover, we still see no material signs of improvements in BeKey, and expect it to remain unprofitable in our entire forecast period: we continue to question its fit in the group.

FVR lowered to DKK 55-93 (58-97)
Negative estimate revisions drive our FVR down to DKK 55-93 (58-97). North Media's net cash position (incl. leases) now stands at DKK 842m, corresponding to DKK ~45/share.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/north-media/Equity-research/