Nordic Waterproofing: Kingspan to place SEK 160/sh bid - ABG

Kingspan passes 30% mandatory bid threshold
Will bid SEK 160/sh, (13.8% premium to closing price)
Incoming bid equals 12.7-10.5x '23e-'24e EV/EBIT (adj.)

Kingspan will place SEK 160/sh bid (13.8% premium to closing price)
Nordic Waterproofing's (NWG) largest owner, Kingspan, announced today that it has acquired a further 6.8% of shares, taking its total holdings to 30.9% of shares and votes in NWG, i.e. above the 30% mandatory bid threshold. The share transaction was completed at SEK 160 per share, representing a 13.8% premium to today's close and a 12.6% premium to the 90-day VWAP. In conjunction with this, Kingspan has stated its intention to place a formal bid for the remaining shares (also at SEK 160 per share) within the coming four weeks. We note that no shareholder owns the required 10% of shares to single-handedly block the incoming bid.

Bid equals 12.7-10.5x '23e-'24e EV/EBIT (adj.), in line with peers
The incoming bid corresponds to a '23e-24e EV/EBIT of 12.7-10.5x, roughly in line with our peer group (Balco, Inwido, Lindab, Nobia, and Systemair) which is trading at a median EV/EBIT of 12.7-10.2x for '23e-'24e. The implied '23e-'24e P/E of 16.0-13.5x, however, is 13-9% above peers at 14.6-11.9x. Over the past five years NWG has traded at an average consensus f12m EV/EBIT of 10.8x. Finally, the SEK 160 per share bid can also be compared to our fair value range of SEK 145-205 per share.

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