NoHo Partners: Restaurant sales performing well across the Nordics - Nordea

Nordea released Finnish card spending data until end of February today. We note continued good performance of restaurant market. Volumes have remained slightly above 2020 levels during January-February, while inflation is clearly supporting nominal sales growth. NoHo’s sales were up 23% in January when comparing to pre-COVID January 2020. Based on Nordea card data, Finnish restaurant market nominal growth was ~21% in January and ~16% in February when compared to 2020 levels. We note that January-February are traditionally the weakest months of the year and given the good restaurant demand across the Nordics, we view our estimates somewhat cautious both for Q1E and 2023E. We have modelled EUR 67.9m sales with EUR 2.8m EBIT in Q1E, while Refinitiv consensus is expecting EUR 70m sales and EUR 4m EBIT. For 2023E, we are 1% below consensus on sales and EBIT. We have a fair value range of EUR 10.8-13.6 per NoHo share.

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