Nilörngruppen: Still awaiting customer destocking - ABG

No indication of consumer rebound yet
'23e EBIT down 5%, '24e-'25e unchanged
8.5x '23e EV/EBIT


What to look for in Q1'23

Q1'23e and H1'23e are still likely to be tough for retailers and their suppliers, as we have not yet seen a significant destocking among a large enough number of major retailers. Therefore, we cut Q1'23e sales by 4% and EBIT by 16%, implying -24% org. growth y-o-y and an EBIT margin of 9.6%. The order intake could decline sequentially again as well, and given the exceptionally high Q1'22 order intake of SEK 283m, we could see a significant drop y-o-y. Assuming an order intake equal to the quarterly average over the past four years of SEK 195m, the y-o-y order intake decline would be 31%. However, such a steep decline would of course be due to a very tough comp, and when making the same comparison on a q-o-q basis, the decline would be 15% instead.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorngruppen/Equity-research/2023/4/nilorngruppen---still-awaiting-customer-destocking/