Netcompany: Soft Q4, and 2022E guidance disappoints but mainly due Intrasoft - Nordea

This morning, Netcompany released its 2021 report. At first glance, the report looks to be a disappointment, however the consolidation of Intrasoft does blur the picture. As expected, the 2021 ended in line with its FY guidance, still the Q4 performance was a disappointment. Compared with the pre-Q4 company-compiled consensus, Q4 revenue and adj. EBITA ended -2% (Nordea: -4%) and -14% (Nordea: -17%), respectively. Q4 organic revenue growth was just 12% (consensus: 18.8%) explained by a larger negative impact from COVID-19 and holiday than expected. 2022 guidance reflects an unchanged high revenue growth and solid level of profitability for Netcompany core, but mainly due to lower contribution from Intrasoft, the 2022 guidance is below consensus. Based on the revenue growth guidance range and the minimum 20% EBITDA margin guidance, this implies a EUR 1.07-1.13bn minimum EBITDA range. Compared to consensus at EUR 1 .27bn, the mid-range is 13% below consensus. We expect moderate negative changes to consensus.

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