Midsona Q2e: Price tailwind but weaker volumes likely - ABG

• We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 12-6%
• Negative price/mix from inflation data continues
• Trading at '23e-'24e EV/EBITA of ~10x-7x

What to expect in Q2'23
We anticipate organic growth of -3% for Q2'23e, as macroeconomic data implies a continued negative volume/mix due to consumers reducing their basket size. This should be negative for Midsona's category of organic products, which is generally somewhat more expensive than, e.g., private label products. Recent history shows that volume declines have caused greater effects than price increases, and we therefore assume negative organic growth for the quarter despite price increases carrying a full quarter impact in Q2. We expect Q2 sales of SEK 973m, an adj. EBITA of SEK 41m, which implies a margin of 4.2%, and an operating cash flow of
SEK 68m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/contentassets/11eaabc137e64464bec669af3898d43b/pdf/q2e-price-tailwind-but-weaker-volumes-likely-.pdf