Midsona Q2e: Price tailwind but weaker volumes likely - ABG

• Cost initiatives announced
• One step closer to positive FCF
• Trading at '23e EV/EBITDA of ~21x

What to look for in Q2'23e
For Q2, we expect a reported ARR of SEK 72.6m and sales of SEK 17.7m. These figures imply y-o-y growth of 8% and 6%, respectively. We also anticipate an EBITDA of SEK 1.8m, which corresponds to a margin of ~10% and operating cash flow of SEK 1.2m. These estimates imply a cut to Q2 sales and EBITDA of 2% and 4%, respectively. Swedish consumer confidence is still weak compared to history, but we note that June's data indicates that there has been a slight rebound since October '22. This should be an incremental positive to Litium's B2C client base, which has likely had a tougher time lately. Litium's business model lets the company generate revenue regardless of the customers' sales volumes, to a certain degree, and there is therefore some resilience to adverse macroeconomic conditions.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/contentassets/99b27fc1baa246d6891ae42a1fdab132/pdf/optimising-the-cost-structure-for-the-future.pdf