Midsona Q1e: A first taste of price increases - ABG

We cut '23e-'25e EBITA by 15-3%
CPI-PPI gap negative for the first time in ~3 years...
...and that is supportive of future margins

What to look for in Q1'23e

We anticipate organic growth of -4% for Q1'23e, as a few distribution agreements were cancelled as of December 31, 2022. Q1'23 should bring a first taste of price increases in Sweden, and we should therefore see improved gross margins on a group level to the tune of 23.5%. On an EBITDA basis, this translates to SEK 55m, a y-o-y decline of 12% for a margin of 5.6%.

Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~10x '23e EV/EBITA, which is in line with peer multiples. From a historical perspective, the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBITA multiple that is ~35% below the historical average of peers.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2023/4/midsona---q1e-a-first-taste-of-price-increases/