INVISIO: Tougher comps, but good momentum - ABG

Tough comps, we expect -3% org sales growth (119% Q1'23)
The Intercom order behind 2024e estimate changes, EBIT +51%
Share trading at 26x EV/EBIT 2024e, 31x 2025e


Tougher comps in Q1e, Intercom roll-out in Q2-Q3e

Invisio faces tough growth comps in Q1e, as Q1'23 grew 119% organically, and with no announced orders in Q3'23-Q1'24 for delivery in Q1, we are cautious about expecting a strong growth figure, although the large order book continues to support deliveries. For Q1, we expect -3% organic sales growth, a normal gross margin of 60.5% and opex to have grown y-o-y from growth investments and higher number of employees. This lowers Q1e EBIT by 34% y-o-y, to SEK 55m (-7% vs. FactSet cons). However, Invisio announced its largest order ever in March, for an Intercom system and a third-party Vehicle radio, with deliveries in Q2-Q3e. We therefore expect a Q1 order intake of SEK 740m, up 135% y-o-y. This will support 2024e growth, while comps will become tough in 2025e again. We expect to see more tailwinds from increased military budgets at the end of 2024 and beyond, and we expect the company will guide for this to have a positive effect.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/invisio/Equity-research/2024/4/invisio---tougher-comps-but-good-momentum/