INVISIO: Order beat drives '25 estimates up slightly - ABG

- Q3 earnings miss reduces '24e EBIT, but order beat raises '25e
- Market activity remains high and Invisio is well-prepared to deliver
- Shares trading at 36-28x EV/EBIT in 2024e-'26e

Ready to grow fast in Q4e and beyond
We raise our Q4 sales estimates due to the strong order intake in Q3 and the short lead-time of the order book. Inventory printed an all-time high in Q3 at SEK 303m, up 11% q-o-q and 40% y-o-y, indicating that Invisio is both ready to deliver products but also able to deliver to customers. We view this as a competitive advantage in the current strong order market. However, quarterly volatility remains high on sales, and EBIT, due to lumpy deliveries, so our visibility into Q4e actual deliveries remains low. We are still somewhat cautious on 2025e due to the strong 2024e (36% organic growth on the back of 50% in 2023), and see a slightly growing sales level. Invisio remained optimistic on recent trade fair feedback as well as product specific feedback for both the X7 headset and the wireless Intercom system.

2024e slightly down, 2025e slightly up
As a result of the Q3 earnings miss, we reduce 2024e EBIT by -1% while we raise 2025e-'26e EBIT by 4-5% due to the strong order intake and positive communication on demand and deliveries.

Order book secures near-term strong growth rates
The order book of SEK 867m closed 20% higher than in Q2, which increases visibility on near-term sales growth rates, and we also expect a strong order intake as demand remains strong. However, on a group level, we estimate a flat development in sales and EBIT into 2025e because the majority of the third party radio order in 2024e is unlikely to be repeated in 2025e and comps are getting tougher. However, longer-term, Invisio looks well positioned to gain from a modernised military market.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/invisio/Equity-research/2024/10/invisio---order-beat-drives-25-estimates-up-slightly/