Infrea: Paving the way - ABG

Q4: +4% org. sales growth, 39% adj. EBITA growth, strong cash flow
'25e-'26e adj. EBITA up 14-5%, 29% CAGR '24-'27e
12-8x EBITA '25e-'26e, 19-23% FCF yields


Land & Construction developing well

Infrea delivered a strong Q4 with sales 1% above ABGSCe, while organic sales was +4% (ABGSCe +3%, +1% Q3'24) due to Land & Construction growing +4% organically; Water & Sewage was -5.8%. Adj. EBITA grew 39% y-o-y and was +22% above our expectation due to the continued improvements in companies such as Siljan Schakt, although this was offset by weak growth in Upplands Markentreprenad (SEK -6.5m worse than Q4'23) and a credit loss provision (SEK 5m). We estimate an underlying margin of 7.1% vs. the reported 5.4%. W&S (10.1% margin vs. ABGSCe. 7.3%) continued to show negative organic growth due to being selective on projects (neg. margins in the past), but delivered strong margins. As the market waits, and given seasonality, we expect adj. EBITA to decline -3% y-o-y in Q1'25 before recovering to ~16% growth in Q2-Q4'25e, supported by stable organic growth of 2-5%. Cash flow was strong at ~130% of EBITDA, and yielded gearing of 1.7x. The Board proposes a dividend of SEK 0.50 (SEK 0.0 in '23) per share.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/2/infrea---paving-the-way/