Humble Group: Temporary headwinds ahead - ABG

'23e-'25e EBITA down 8-3%
Gross margin recovery hampered by Red Sea tensions
'24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of 4-9%


What to expect in Q4'23e

For Q4'23, we expect sales of SEK 1,883m, implying 9% organic y-o-y growth in addition to 1% FX growth and 7% M&A growth. We anticipate a gross margin of ~29% given the company's history of being able to maintain the 30% level despite cost inflation and elevated freight costs. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 162m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 8.6%.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/humble-group/Equity-research/2024/1/humble-group---temporary-headwinds-ahead/