Humble Group: Red Sea prevents gross margin expansion - ABG

'25e-'26e EBITA down 7-5%
Freight rate normalisation required for better gross margins
'25e EV/EBITA ~9x, ~40% below peers


What to expect in Q4'24

We expect sales of SEK 2,102m for Q4'24, implying 8% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a 0.7% FX tailwind. We anticipate a gross margin of 31%, which should be somewhat pressured by elevated freight rates. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 157m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 7.5%. We anticipate a significant working capital release in Q4, to the tune of SEK 130m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/humble-group/Equity-research/2025/2/humble-group---red-sea-prevents-gross-margin-expansion-/