Humble Group: Expect better cash flow in 2025 - ABG

'25e-'26e adj. EBITA down 3%
Latent working capital release likely in Q1'25
'25e EV/EBITA of 9x is ~40% below peer average


Takeaways from the report

The Q4 report was mostly in line with our expectations, but slightly below those of FactSet consensus. The organic growth and EBITA margin were unsurprising elements, but cash flow was weak due to a lack of working capital release. This happened in Q4'22 as well, after which the company released working capital in Q1'23 instead. We believe that a similar dynamic could occur in the coming quarter. Moreover, the company signalling a return to M&A shortly is positive for the long-term earnings compounding potential in the business, especially as there are strong platform businesses within Humble Group.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/humble-group/Equity-research/2025/2/humble-group---expect-better-cash-flow-in-2025/