Green Landscaping Group: Sweden behind earnings miss - ABG

Sales -3%, adj. EBITA -8% vs. cons, -6% org. growth
Consensus to lower '24e-'25e EBITA by 3-5%
Share to react negative on uncertainty in Sweden


Q4 details

Lower sales and earnings vs. consensus, but good cash flow. Sales came in at SEK 1,774m (-1% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons), +7% y-o-y of which -6% organically (ABGSCe 0%, cons +1%, +3% Q3'24), driven by lower volumes in Sweden. Adj. EBITA grew +2% y-o-y to SEK 169m (-7% vs. ABGSCe, -8% vs. cons), for a margin of 9.5% (ABGSCe 10.1%, cons 10.1%, 10.0% Q4'23) driven by weak margins in Sweden (held back by a not quantified credit loss provision) compensated by solid margins in Norway and strong margins in Europe. FCF was strong, at ~130% of EBITA (~40% in Q3), while gearing was lower q-o-q at 2.7x (2.9x) and 2.5x pro forma (2.7x).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/green-landscaping-group/Equity-research/2025/1/green-landscaping-group---sweden-behind-earnings-miss/