Gentoo Media: Growth delivery continues - ABG

Strong Q4 organic growth and double-digit '25 target
10-8% EPS downgrades for '25e-'27e
Trading well below peers at 5x '25e EV/EBITDA


Strong growth continues with double-digit '25 outlook

Gentoo delivered accelerating organic growth in Q4 at 18%, up from 12% in Q3 and slightly above FY'24 at 17%. The mix was more tilted to CPA than usual, which saw a sharp uptick q-o-q (>100%), while the revenue share and Listing fees/other sales remained more stable at 4% and 11% sequential growth, respectively. This leaves us slightly more cautious to extrapolate the strong Q4 growth, as CPA does not support the recurring revenue and could likely be temporary, where the CEO emphasised that the mix should return to historical levels. The '25 outlook statement of double-digit organic growth was reassuring, although we trim our '25e organic growth by ~1pp to 12% on a more cautious approach, expecting a small q-o-q decline in Q1 as a new base level. Still, we emphasise that the 12% growth is looking particularly strong in light of the tough environment for affiliate peers.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/2/gentoo-media---growth-delivery-continues-/