Fortnox - Adj. EBIT slightly above our forecast - ABG

Q2 adj. EBIT SEK 71m, +5% vs. ABGSCe
Encouraging recovery in transaction-based sales
Expect positive estimate revisions from consensus

Sales SEK 230m (-0.3% vs ABGSC 231m and -0.2% vs cons 231m), EBITDA SEK 91m (4.2% vs ABGSC 88m and 10.1% vs cons 83m), EBIT SEK 70m (4.6% vs ABGSC 67m and 2.4% vs cons 69m), PTP SEK 69m (3.6% vs ABGSC 66m and -0.4% vs cons 69m), EPS SEK 0.89 / share (4.6% vs ABGSC 0.85 / share and 1.19% vs cons 1 / share).

Q2 customer intake of +15,000 (ABGSCe +16,000), which we consider solid. This compares to +13,000 customers q-o-q in Q2’20. Fortnox Core reported sales of SEK 185m (+2% vs. ABGSCe), +27.5% growth y-o-y, while Fortnox Finance posted sales of SEK 27m (-2% vs. ABGSCe), +12.5% y-o-y. The adj. EBIT margin contracted to 31.1% from 36.8% in Q2’20, which stemmed from 1) margin-dilutive acquisitions (excl. acquisitions, the EBIT margin was 34.1%), 2) increased growth investments (e.g. investments in its internal platforms), and 3) transaction-based sales remain muted due to the pandemic. Encouragingly, transaction-based sales reported +20% growth q-o-q, which, in our view, suggests that these revenue streams likely have troughed.

Based on the Q2 report alone, our ’21-’23 EBIT estimates would come up by 1%. As such, we could see consensus raise its ’21-’23 EBIT forecasts by 3-5%. Fortnox’s share is trading at 58x ‘22e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates, and is up 1% YTD which is in line with other Nordic SaaS peers at 0% YTD.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://www.introduce.se/foretag/fortnox/Equity-research/2021/8/fortnox---adj.-ebit-slightly-above-our-forecast/