Ferronordic: Firing on both cylinders - Nordea

Ferronordic presented a higher dividend and 47% stronger sales for Q4 than we forecast, due to market share gains in Germany and strong momentum in Kazakhstan. EBIT was more negative than expected due to Germany but reached breakeven at the end of the quarter, as anticipated. We raise our EBIT estimates by 14-21% for 2023-25, owing to the good momentum in Kazakhstan. Looking ahead, we expect Germany to turn a profit in 2023 and reach a 2% EBIT margin in 2024, despite tougher global macro conditions. Ferronordic is trading at 8x 2023E EV/EBIT but 5x for 2024E, which is below MEKO and Finning for both years. Our raised multiples-based fair value range of SEK 85-100 (84-92) corresponds to an EV/EBIT of 8x for 2023E and 2024E, respectively. If Germany were to reach a 5% EBIT margin, our valuation would increase by SEK 29 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.

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