Ferronordic: Delayed recovery in Germany - Nordea

Ferronordic presented a muted set of Q2 numbers below our expectations, with organic sales declining by 42% y/y, thus showing a clear sequential drop-off from the Q1 2024 organic pace of -25% y/y. The muted performance was driven by Germany, in which new equipment sales declined by 65% y/y despite broader market growth of 11% y/y and 22% y/y in Ferronordic's area. Here, the weaker performance was seemingly driven by both fleet renewal postponements and cancellations, along with unfavourable pricing competition. Going forward, however, we continue to expect order growth in the market to trend in the right direction, which should serve to alleviate the current pricing scrutiny and yield a normalising ordering dynamic. More importantly, the US continued to perform well, with healthy profitability and market share gains, and further large construction projects throughout the US Midwest. Overall, we lower our 2025E-26E adjusted EBIT by 6%. We maintain our multiples-based valuation range of 7-11x 2025E EV/EBIT, corresponding to SEK 47-74 per share, which implies limited rerating potential from current levels. Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.

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