Energy Save: Green numbers for a green company - ABG

Continued sales ramp-up, 32% sales growth q-o-q (ABGSCe +18%)
Positive EBIT in FY'24/'25e, ests. up to SEK 3m (prev. SEK -4m)
9-4x EBIT '25e-'26e, FV range SEK 27-76


Fourth quarter of sequential sales growth

Energy Save saw growth both y-o-y (+187%) and q-o-q (+32%), with sales of SEK 79m (13% vs. ABGSCe SEK 70m), driven by Residential and the Aira partnership, while Commercial remained weak (+169% q-o-q, -38% y-o-y). The gross margin was lower at 25% (29% in Q1'23/'24), due to a higher share of direct deliveries, and costs associated with the new technology platform. EBIT was SEK 324k (vs. ABGSCe SEK -2m), for a margin of 0% (-11% in Q4'23/'24). FCF was SEK -399k (vs. SEK -13m in Q4'23/'24), as working capital turned positive to SEK 1m (SEK -4m in Q4'23/'24). We expect Energy Save's net cash position to support growth and for FCF to turn positive from '26/'27e. Looking ahead, we expect Aira to support continued growth y-o-y (~140-40% y-o-y in fiscal Q2-Q4), but somewhat slower progress q-o-q. That said, higher sales should also support a slow but gradual improvement in margins.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2024/9/energy-save---green-numbers-for-a-green-company/