Elanders: We are optimistic about 2024 - ABG
Still high uncertainty, but Elanders is making improvements...
...and earnings should benefit from improved demand
10x adj. EBITA after -40% one-year total return
No drama in Q4
Q4 was largely in line with our expectations, with sales coming in 3% ahead while adj. EBITA missed by 3%. The weak and uncertain demand was widely expected, but we were encouraged to hear that the overall market did not deteriorate further after Q3. While the adj. EBITA margin of 8.1% was flat y-o-y despite a weaker market, our expectations were higher (8.6%), as we thought Kammac in combination with less overcapacity would help more. Kammac delivered a solid quarter, but the overcapacity continues to cost. We are optimistic about Elanders solving this in 2024 and find the news about new customers in Europe encouraging. Print & Packaging Solutions delivered another solid quarter albeit somewhat below our expectations. Moreover, we got the anticipated NWC release, and OPCF was strong at SEK 593m. Leverage came up in line with our estimate due to the acquisition, but we expect a meaningful reduction in 2024, and see significant leeway. We were also encouraged by the proposed DPS of SEK 4.15/share, which was unchanged vs. 2022 and in line with ABGSCe.
Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/elanders/Equity-research/2024/1/elanders---we-are-optimistic-about-2024/
