Elanders: Set for Q3 margin expansion - Nordea

We lower adjusted EBIT by 1-2% for 2023E-25E ahead of Elanders' Q3 2023 report. Due to diminishing demand in all larger customer segments, which accelerated during the second half of Q2, we expect that sales for Supply Chain Solutions will remain burdened. Despite sitting on overcapacity, we look for a y/y EBIT margin uplift of ~50bp, supported by the phase-out of the buy-and-sell business and the exit from the unprofitable road transportation business in Germany. As such , we pencil in flat y/y adjusted EBIT. The market outlook remains uncertain, but we expect Elanders to release SEK 260m of working capital in H2 2023, supporting strong cash flow, and to achieve net debt/EBITDA of 3.7x by the end of the year. We lower our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 103-162 (106-166). Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.

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