DistIT: Macro remains tough while comps get easier - ABG

We cut '23e-'25e EBIT by 22-2%
Consumer confidence remains relatively low
'23e-'24e EV/EBIT ~34x-10x

What to expect in Q2'23
We anticipate Q2'23e sales of SEK 523m and an EBIT of -12m, down from SEK 572m and SEK -3m in our previous Q2'23 estimates. Our new estimates reflect that consumer confidence remains at low historical levels, suggesting that Aurdel may still be challenged by destocking efforts and consequently low gross margins. We also reduce estimates for Septon to reflect potential weakness in public events. EFUEL is likely to continue to ramp up partnerships and rationalise its cost structure, and we believe that the segment should now be back to somewhat more normal operating conditions. We expect operating cash flow of SEK 16m, with working capital releases of over SEK 30m offsetting negative EBITDA and net financial items.

Estimate changes
We cut '23e-'25e sales by 1% and EBIT by 22-2% to reflect continued consumer confidence-related weakness in the near term. We only make minor adjustments for '24e-'25e, as we believe that a rebound could likely occur in early-to-mid '24e, compared to our previous estimate of H2'23e. In absolute terms, a rebound in Aurdel and a comeback to rapid growth from EFUEL following the sales ban on Easee are expected to be the key drivers of performance in the future. EFUEL's expansion through partnerships with several EV charging box OEMs should decrease the supplier concentration risk in the future and enable higher quality growth.

Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at a '23e-'24e EV/EBIT of ~34x-10x.

Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/distit/Equity-research/2023/8/distit---macro-remains-tough-while-comps-get-easier/